Anwar puts his foot down

ANALYSIS By JOCELINE TAN

The de facto PKR leader’s hand in the party polls has been evident in the last few days as he turned on his charm as well as used a heavy fist to fine-tune the list of candidates.

PKR politician Datuk Zaid Ibrahim has always had this polished and casual chic kind of look. But the past few days have found him looking harassed and rather out of sorts, as though the world is slowly crumbling around his ears.

He cannot be blamed because he was almost “played out” by three ladies in a private home in Taman Tun Dr Ismail on Thursday.

During the meeting, the three ladies managed to elicit three promises from him: one, he would not contest the PKR No. 1 post; two, he would pull out from the No. 2 post; three, he would instead go for a vice-president post.

The three ladies were none other than PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, her daughter Nurul Izzah Anwar and political secretary to the Selangor Mentri Besar, Faekah Husin, whose petite frame belies her political cables in the party.

Zaid agreed to the proposals because he was told that Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim would also quit the race and that Wan Azizah would persuade the other candidate Mustaffa Kamil Ayob to withdraw.

The idea was to pave the way for a face-off between Nurul Izzah and Azmin Ali. Both mother and daughter have very personal feelings about Azmin and they evidently felt that this would be the moment to take him on.

On Friday, Zaid and Nurul Izzah met again to discuss a joint press conference on Saturday where he would withdraw and she would confirm her candidacy. His only condition was that she should not quit midway.

But the press conference never took place, the three women went incommunicado, calls were not returned and SMSes went unanswered.

Zaid must have felt as if he was in one of those weird twilight zone movies – did the meeting actually take place or had he imagined all of it?

Well, it was definitely for real and when things went all silent on the other side, he dashed off e-mails to all those who had attended, confirming the discussion. Only Nurul Izzah acknowledged the e-mail.

Zaid was totally cheesed off and has since confirmed he is in the race against Azmin and Mustaffa. Khalid is staying out whereas Nurul is going for the vice-president post.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim apparently blew his top and put his foot down on the deal, despite the fact that his wife is his party president and his daughter is an MP in her own right.

Anwar, weighed down as he is by the sodomy trial, has been working behind the scenes to prevent the party elections from getting out of hand.

He is convinced an early general election is in store after Friday’s Budget and he cannot afford any big splits. The party adviser turned on his legendary charm for some, and used a heavy fist on others to avert all-out fights.

Khalid evidently bowed to Anwar’s determination that Azmin should be the next deputy president.

At a private meeting last week, Anwar asked Khalid to concentrate on his duties as Selangor Mentri Besar.

He told Khalid that going for No. 2 did not make sense given that he has to focus on defending Selangor in the next election. He reminded Khalid that it was why he was replaced by Azmin as Selangor PKR chief a few months ago.

The contest for the PKR No. 2 post has had more twists and turns than the East-West Highway. There has also been collateral damage and a PKR-aligned news portal had to publish a long editorial insisting that, “We are nobody’s poodle,” following accusations that its coverage of the PKR polls was one-sided.

The real power lies with Anwar. He let things take its course earlier on but began pressing the control buttons in the days leading to the confirmation of candidates.

He would probably step up his role again when the divisions convene to vote for the supreme council between Oct 29 and Nov 21.

Those who had pressured him to go for No. 1 must be slapping themselves. Why should he, when he has such unlimited and undefined power as the de facto leader?

At the same time, his word is not what it used to be with the new one-man-one-vote system of election.

For instance, Zaid, who defied Anwar so openly, still managed to secure some 40 nominations for the No. 2 post and more than qualified for the No. 1 post.

Rafizi Ramli, Anwar’s calon wahyu for the leadership of Angkatan Muda Keadilan or AMK, did poorly in the nominations race and has pulled out, reportedly on Anwar’s advice.

The AMK fight is now between two street-fighter style politicians – Badrul Hisham Shaharin and incumbent Shamsul Iskander Akin. Although Shamsul has been unremarkable as AMK chief, Anwar is said to prefer him over Badrul who has an independent spirit.

Anwar’s alignment to personalities in the party seems to suggest that this election has more to do with his sodomy trial than the future of the party.

His all-time favourite Azmin is primed to look after Anwar’s personal interest as keenly as he does that of the party. Even Anwar’s approval of Shamsul and Tian Chua is related to their ability to whip up demonstrations which will be useful in his trial.

As for Wan Azizah, who was returned unopposed as president, her loyalty to the party is second only to her loyalty to her husband.

Those contesting the party polls have to realise that they are there not only to take on the Barisan Nasional but also to rise to Anwar’s defence in the sodomy trial.

Joceline Tan: A year of dramatic politics

Insight
by Joceline Tan

The country has been in a state of constant politics since the March 8 tsunami and the contest over its political future is still taking place.

A YEAR has gone by since the March 8, 2008 general election but for many politicians, it was as though the campaign never quite ended.

It has been politics and more politics; or as one editor put it, “we are overcooked by politics”.

Some have likened the on-going politicking to a soap opera, sometimes heartening, at times tragic; occasionally entertaining, mostly tiresome. And it also seems to go on in unending episodes.

But the problem is that all of this is not fictional but real-life drama that affects people’s lives and future.

One keeps hearing that Malaysians are growing weary of it, and it is very true. At the same time, some Malaysians have actually become quite addicted to politics. People who had rarely bothered about politics before have become avid followers of politics.

Malaysians have become highly politicised.

It has been an unprecedented year.

Three by-elections

Never in history has there been an occasion of three by-elections at one go.

On April 7, by-elections will take place in Kedah, Perak and Sarawak. These will likely be followed by another in Selangor because Bukit Lanjan assemblyman Elizabeth Wong is expected to vacate her seat.

And before that, there were fierce contests in Permatang Pauh and then Kuala Terengganu.

But the year since the general election has been marked by several pivotal issues and events that will have bearing on the shape of the country’s political future.

The first revolved around the figure of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim – another sodomy accusation, his claim to have the numbers and his failure to deliver them by Sept 16.

The second was the speeded-up political transition in Umno and the politicking in the run-up to the Umno election.

The third is the political crisis in Perak.

Anwar set the political tone not long after March when he claimed to have the numbers to take over the Federal government. It was such a successful psy-war that it was all that everyone could talk about and sent jitters through the ruling coalition.

In the midst of all this, there was the high drama over the sensational second sodomy charge that set off a chain of events of its own, including renewed accusations over the Altantuya murder case and Anwar’s decision to contest the Permatang Pauh seat.

Anwar and his Pakatan group were on a crest but his inability to deliver on Sept 16 set them back, and brought back some measure of confidence to the Barisan.

With Sept 16 come and gone, the focus shifted back to Umno’s own internal crisis. The losses in March had thrown the party into its biggest political dilemma since the Anwar sacking in 1998.

Very few in Umno were in agreement with the original leadership handover date of June 2009. But they could not do anything because Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak was adamant not to challenge Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

The outcome of the Permatang Pauh by-election in August changed everything. It set into motion the wheels for Umno to bring forward its leadership transition to March this year.

The new date injected a more confident and settled mood in Umno. Party members had no intention of pushing Abdullah out. What they wanted was a dignified exit for him because they had lost confidence in his leadership after the worst electoral losses in history.

And there was no question about who they wanted to take over as demonstrated by Najib’s near-perfect sweep of endorsement for the party’s No. 1 post.

The politicking in Umno has since shifted to the party elections and it is about to reach its crescendo.

The campaign for party posts has also been blamed for the heightened tone of politics on a variety of issues, with those aspiring for party posts seen as playing to the gallery.

But the dramatic assembly-under-the-tree in Perak on Tuesday perhaps best epitomised the degree to which the political buttons are being pushed in the country.

It exemplified just how determined the parties engaged in this contest for power are in establishing their point of view and standing their ground.

Change of government

The controversial change of government in Perak and the subsequent developments have captured the imagination of not only Perakians but people all over the country.

Regardless of whether they approve or disapprove of what is happening in Perak, people have an opinion on it.

The situation in Perak has become so contentious, the claims and counter-claims so numerous and ultra, that it is increasingly difficult to tell who is right or wrong. Everything has become purely political and the result is a confusing mess.

Politicians in Perak used to jokingly refer to their state as “negeri mati” because nothing ever happened there. Well, it is now the most happening state in the country, but for the wrong reasons.

Every day comes with more bad news on the global economy yet politicians are so wrapped up in their politicking they seem unable to focus on the economy.

In this respect, all the political parties are equally guilty in contributing to the resultant political instability. This should be of great concern because political stability is a top factor for investment and economic growth.

The Barisan supporters say this is what happens when the Opposition becomes too strong. The Pakatan supporters counter that this happened because the Barisan cannot accept the idea of being relegated to an opposition role.

The negative side to this is that the politicking has gone over the top. There is too much gamesmanship going on and too little effort spent on running the Government and serving the people.

Even the media, for whom bad news is good news, are feeling a little worn out by the endless politicking.

On the other hand, the optimists are saying this is part of the growing pains of democracy, and that is a necessary process towards a two-party system. People have to learn to engage in politics, have political opinions and take stands on issues that affect their interests, well-being and future.

For instance, the change of government in several states has revealed some shocking accounts of mismanagement in the previous Barisan administrations.

It has underscored the need for every administration to be accountable and do a good job or they can be changed and their misdeeds exposed.

Not up to mark

And in states which had voted in new governments, there is the realisation that it is easy to criticise but not so easy to do the actual job.

Penang exco member Danny Law’s inability to present his ideas during a recent tourism meeting in Melbourne put him and the state in a bad light. Deputy Chief Minister I Fairus Khairuddin has also come under heavy criticism over his performance, or rather lack of it.

In Perak, the two former PKR assemblymen, who crossed to the Barisan, had landed in the arms of anti-corruption officers just months into their job.

Politics has taken centrestage in the year since the political tsunami.

But over and above all this politicking, there has emerged a much more demanding and politicised public. And they will have to be taken seriously by those who want to hold on to power as well as those aspiring to power.

A year of dramatic politics The Star

ELIZABETH WONG WITH MALAYSIAKINI: a thin line by joceline

A thin line crossed for eli Wong

Analysis
Joceline Tan

Fear of more embarrassing pictures from politician Elizabeth Wong’s private life being exposed to the public led the PKR leader to the difficult decision that it was better for her to go.

THERE has been a fantastic wave of sympathy for PKR politician Elizabeth Wong since photographs of her in an intimate situation began circulating.

Images of the tearful politician splashed on the front pages of all the newspapers only intensified empathy for her plight.

Wong, known as “Eli” among her PKR colleagues, had made news for all the right reasons when she won the Bukit Lanjan state seat in the general election.

She was seen as the sort of woman politician who might help to change the face of Malaysian politics.

Unfortunately, Wong, 38, is now making news for all the wrong reasons and her political career is about to come to a premature end.

PKR’s high-level political bureau, chaired by de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, recently met for almost five hours and reached the difficult conclusion that it was best for Wong to resign.

The party has yet to officially accept her resignation as Selangor executive councillor and assemblyman but she has been asked to go on indefinite leave and it is almost as good as over for her.

The meeting saw party president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail crying openly as she spoke up for Wong and pleaded on her behalf. Wong had worked for a couple of years as Dr Wan Azizah’s special assistant and she still has a soft spot for the younger woman.

Her colleagues also argued for her, saying that she was the victim, that what happened was a private matter and she should not bow to pressure to resign.

Those who defended her included vice-president R. Sivarasa, treasurer William Leong, information chief Tian Chua and Wanita chief Zuraidah Kamaruddin.

They had a point because the existing pictures although so widespread in the Internet are more embarrassing than incriminating. Besides, there had been no complaints about Wong’s work as a wakil rakyat.

But the party’s top strategist and Machang MP Saifuddin Nasution reminded the meeting that any solution to this potentially damaging issue would also have to take into account the political repercussions for the party and its partners in the Pakatan Rakyat.

With pictures like that floating around, it would be difficult for Wong to give her 100% as a wakil rakyat because the Malaysian electorate comprises people of all kinds – those of liberal mores as well as people who are very conservative and disapproving about things like that.

Party leaders have been informed that there are more pictures as well as a half-hour-long video that could further dent Wong’s reputation and adversely affect the party as well.

Although Wong was unsure whether the culprit had downloaded the other images from her laptop, a number of those at the meeting felt that the political risks and costs of more photographs being circulated were too great for the party to absorb.

Moreover, with the police probe now in progress, it was a matter of time before the culprit, believed to be a former boyfriend, would be identified or even apprehended. After that, more embarrassing allegations may emerge.

There is only a thin line separating one’s public and private life especially in the age of the Internet and particularly if one is holding public office.

PKR leaders felt they could not afford to wait for the political bomb to explode before they acted.

Anwar has also met separately with PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang and DAP top guns Lim Guan Eng and Lim Kit Siang to brief them as well as seek their opinions.

Hadi was of the view that Islam did not condone people being humiliated in such a manner.

Guan Eng, initially felt that Wong should not resign, but the political realist in him forced him to change his mind after being told that there might be more damaging material ahead.

PKR leaders are trying to contain the fire and ride on the sympathy.

Asking Wong to go on indefinite leave is a way to buy time because party leaders do not want to face three by-elections at one go.

They want to focus on Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau for now. After that, they will brace themselves for a by-election in Bukit Lanjan.

Wong will probably step down from her state executive councillor post soon but hold on to her state seat until the ripples subside.

In the meantime, they hope to defuse the ticking time bomb caused by the Wong issue.

Related stories:
Boyfriend to be quizzed
Khalid to brief Selangor Sultan next Wednesday
Boyfriend can be charged, says Zahid
Iskandar: Wong may have been framed
Najib: BN not involved
Stop taking moral high ground, says MCA leader
Boyfriend’s ex-boss centre of attention in Parliament
Service centre stays open

WITH MALAYSIAKINI: Joceline on Wan Farid last year.

So for a month, Wan Ahmad Farid will be the central figure in Malaysian politics. Kuala Terengganu by election is going to be very close and tight judging by the small margin of 628 votes won by the late Razali in April this year . Hafiz Yatim in Malaysiakini warned about strategies to be taken by PAS as they zoom into Farid's weaknesses.

• from malaysiakini
• Some issues PAS intends to pick on Hafiz Yatim | Dec 22, 08 4:04pm
• PAS is quick to zoom into Umno candidate Wan Ahmad Farid’s soft spots, one of which is his close ties with the outgoing prime minister.

2. I remembered what Joceline wrote last year on Time for damage control. What she wrote then is still relevant as far as tussle between PAS and UMNO goes .


beritadarigunung

INSIGHT: BY Joceline Tan

The opposition party ceramah in Terengganu that went seriously wrong will have political implications for both PAS and Umno even as they blame each other and the police.

But by mid-week, he had lost his patience and grown quite irritated with the repeated accusations.

“How did I get dragged into this? I had nothing to do with it,” he said.

The accusation emanated from no less than one of PAS' most influential figures, Datuk Mustafa Ali who is also the party's Terengganu chief. Mustafa had openly alleged that Wan Farid was one of those behind last Saturday's trouble.

Calm before the storm: Idris (second from left) probably had no idea of the storm ahead when he joined a reef clean-up in the calm blue waters off Terengganu but he will have to do some shrewd damage control in the weeks ahead.

It is not difficult to see why PAS politicians are so keen to link Wan Farid to last Saturday's fracas.

The British-trained lawyer is a rising star in Terengganu and also the political secretary to Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in his Internal Security Minister portfolio.

PAS politicians claimed that Wan Farid had met police personnel earlier on the day of the ceramah.

Mustafa: Alleged that Umno played a role in last week's clash.

He did, actually, but as the VIP guest at the Police Open Day in the police residential complex at 11am in Ladang about 5km away. He had made a short speech at the function and given away prizes for the futsal game and cooking contest.

“I was there for about an hour and about 400 people saw me there. Then I left for another appointment. For them to implicate me shows how desperate they are to shift the blame,” said Wan Farid.

There has been no shortage of explanations and theories over what happened in Batu Buruk and the blame game is still going on.

This was no ordinary clash because live bullets were used on an unarmed crowd and two men were shot.

The opposition parties, led by PAS, blamed the police for the clash and accused Umno of allegedly masterminding it.

Umno on its part has painted the opposition parties, especially PAS and their supporters, as unruly, desperate for a way out of the quagmire and disrespectful of the law.

A string of police reports have been lodged by both sides and two of those injured are still hospitalised.

Parliamentarians have traded accusations over it at the current session of Parliament and the human rights body Suhakam has agreed to a fact-finding mission.

Shabery: Slammed PAS for breaking law and burning national flag.

People in Kuala Terengganu are still shocked and have not been able to stop talking about it.

Few anticipated trouble even though the organisers had decided to go ahead without a police permit.

Apparently, the authorities have not allowed political gatherings in Batu Buruk for some time now.

The last ceramah there, which featured Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, took place several months ago. That ceramah also did not have a permit but a compromise was struck and it ended at 11pm instead of the usual midnight.

The authorities say they want to keep political activity away from the area which is a tourist spot with beach hotels and a stunning vista of the South China Sea. It is also an elite residential address that includes the palace of the King's mother, home of the High Court judge as well as top civil servants.

Wan Farid: PAS is desperate to shift the blame for their mistake.

The ceramah was to launch the Terengganu chapter of Bersih, an electoral reform coalition of political parties and NGOs.

The police suggested that it be held in Rusila, the stronghold of PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang. But the PAS side, which applied for the permit, was unwilling because non-PAS supporters would not go to Rusila and they wanted to attract a mixed crowd.

Some claimed the stage was set for trouble when the authorities dismantled the stage erected by the organisers.

“When I returned from work at about 5.30pm, I saw that the structure had been demolished but everything was still calm,” said Dr Manaf Che Mat, a medical doctor who lives in the area.

Not long after that, police road blocks went up at the main routes leading to the area. But the violence began after 10pm when people were arrested, stones and Molotov cocktails were thrown, garbage bins set on fire and the national flag torched. Then there was the shooting incident.

Technically, the clash took place between the police and ceramah goers. But the incident has acquired a political life of its own given the local politics and the use of the shooting controversy.

Both sides have given their version of the incident.

“There is no damage to Umno. This thing is between the police and PAS. They are trying to get attention because they are facing diminished support in the state. People can see what kind of party PAS is. We are celebrating 50 years of Merdeka, raising the Jalur Gemilang everywhere and they burn it. It's a tragedy,” said Terengganu information chief and Kemaman MP Datuk Ahmad Shabery Chik.

PAS, said Ahmad Shabery, had also broken the law and challenged the police by holding the ceramah without a permit.

“They should just admit they are in the wrong,” he said.

PAS think-tank head Dr Zulkifli Ahmad, on the other hand, accused Umno of “decapitation politics.”

“They know the opposition parties are feeling very bullish about the general election so they want to cut us off, portray us as violent, bad for the image of the country and a deterrent to investors. Their story line keeps changing. First one bullet fired, then they say two and now four,” said Dr Zulkifli.

PAS leaders have also asked for the person who was photographed burning the national flag to be identified.

The picture, published in all the newspapers, showed a youngish man in a long-sleeved sweatshirt, blue jeans and sandals setting fire to the flag.

“We are not making excuses about the flag. We want to know whether he is one of our members, a member of the public, plainclothes policeman or just a plain trouble-maker,” said Zulkifli.

The police have insisted that their stand has been not to react unless provoked. The state police chief had said that the constable who shot at rioters who attacked him was only trying to protect a group of women and children.

“The incident has given the opposition a bullet to aim at us. Even the use of tear gas is not good. This is Terengganu, not some big, bad city. PAS had few issues in the state but they are going to capitalise on this and put us on the defensive,” said Datuk Wan Albakri Mohd Noor, a Terengganu-based businessman with close ties to Umno.

Moreover, said Wan Albakri, the Mentri Besar Datuk Idris Jusoh had worked hard to bring about balance and confidence in the state.

Idris, who is in Mecca doing his umrah, has without a doubt done a far better job than PAS' Hadi.

PAS is already riding on the ceramah clash.

During a PAS ceramah in Machang, Kelantan, on Tuesday, slides of the incident were displayed as well as the picture of the man who was shot in the chest as he lay in the ICU under an oxygen mask. It was a very emotive image.

There will be political damage to both sides.

In the last few years, PAS had been trying hard to cultivate an image as a national party with aspirations to federal power. It has eschewed NGO-type of behaviour for more mainstream action on many issues.

As such, the incident is a setback of sorts for its image, especially outside of Terengganu. But the use of firearms has not gone down well with the local folk for whom political ceramahs are a way of life.

As for Umno, Idris had been running such a tight ship that some Umno politicians were even talking of a clean sweep.

The Barisan Nasional controls 28 of the 32 state seats and had been confident of sweeping the other four seats in the next general election. They are probably less sure now.

Politics is often not so much about who is speaking the truth than about perception. As such, there will be some collateral damage on Umno as well even though the issue is technically between the police and the opposition.

The Malay belt is highly politicised and Idris will have to do some very shrewd damage control if Umno wants to maintain its near perfect record in the state. Calm before the storm: Idris (second from left) probably had no idea of the storm ahead when he joined a reef clean-up in the calm blue waters off Terengganu but he will have to do some shrewd damage control in the weeks ahead. Mustafa: Alleged that Umno played a role in last week's clash. Shabery: Slammed PAS for breaking law and burning national flag. Wan Farid: PAS is desperate to shift the blame for their mistake.

Sunday September 16, 2007. Time for damage control The Star

JOCELINE TAN: Still waiting in the wings

Analysis
By JOCELINE TAN

Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has not been able to produce the numbers but he will continue to impress on his supporters that he is still on course for Putrajaya at the PKR congress this month.

IT was one of those ironic moments in politics when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak arrived in Parliament to unveil the economic stimulus package.

It was his first major outing as Finance Minister I in Parliament, and seated right across him was the former Finance Minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Holding all the numbers: Najib is the one with the real numbers after sweeping through the nominations for Umno president. He is seen here arriving in Parliament on Tuesday.

To compound the comparison, one is the Deputy Prime Minister while the other used to be the Deputy Prime Minister.

But most contentious of all is that each of the two men are seen by their respective supporters as THE Prime Minister-in-waiting.

It has been more than two months since Anwar took his place in Parliament as the new Opposition Leader and Permatang Pauh MP. Interest in him has not waned, and he is still lionised by the media.

He has made a marathon speech that is said to have set a record for its length and has presented an alternative budget to the one tabled by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

He has not been as aggressive and confrontational as some thought he would be, and there is a very good reason for that. His supporters regard him as the next Prime Minister, and he needs to be seen as the Premier-in-waiting rather than as an all-out oppositionist.

At a PKR function during the fasting month, guests watched a video titled The 6th First Lady of Malaysia. It was not about Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor. Rather, it was about Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail’s political journey from devoted wife and mother to political leader.

The majority of PKR members still believe or want to believe that they will be calling the shots in Putrajaya sooner rather than later.

Hoping for the numbers: Anwar’s supporters believe he still has a date with destiny. The PKR leader is seen here leading opposition MPs in a walk-out as Najib was speaking in Parliament.

This, despite Sept 16 having come and gone and that the real Prime Minister-in-waiting is sitting opposite Anwar in Parliament.

There has been so much talk about Anwar “having the numbers” but the numbers have not materialised.

Instead, the numbers are with Najib who has accomplished a near perfect sweep of the 191 Umno divisions and with that, the ticket to the post of Prime Minister.

Najib’s sure-footed ascent in Umno has dealt the PKR leader a bigger blow than the fact that nothing happened on Sept 16.

The speeded-up transition, as many have noted, has brought a new stability and focus to Umno members and helped quell the rebellious mood especially in Sabah.

Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, another aspirant to the premiership, has secured only one nomination.

But during a hush-hush meeting with Anwar a few weeks ago, he had also talked about having the numbers. He had said that he could get up to 70 nominations and that he had the support of the palace and military.

Anwar was right to be sceptical about Tengku Razaleigh’s numbers even though his own have been more talk than reality.

But PKR members still believe that their man, like Barrack Obama, has a date with destiny.

PKR’s leading strategist Saifuddin Nasution insisted: “Nowadays, people don’t ask whether we have the numbers. They ask: When is Datuk Seri Anwar going to take over the Government?”

Party leaders are now talking about a new take-over date in December.

But their credibility among ordinary Malaysians has been somewhat dented after Sept 16 and the new promise of forming the Government has not generated the sort of anticipation or excitement as before.

Premier-in-waiting will be the image he will carry with him to the PKR annual general meeting or congress at the end of the month.

This will be the first congress following the party’s successes at the polls that saw the party rocket from a single parliamentary seat to a total of 31 MPs.

They have assemblymen in the other state governments under the Pakatan Rakyat umbrella while one of their very own, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, is Mentri Besar of Selangor.

Not everyone in the party is happy with Khalid’s maverick style of doing things but he is a respected figure, not the sort to insult civil servants with brooms or offend the sensibilities of other communities.

“We want to keep our success story going and make Selangor a model state,” said Saifuddin.

Saifuddin said this year’s congress at the Melawati Stadium in Selangor will be different.

“We want to celebrate how far PKR has come,” he said.

The congress in Seremban last year had been marked by bickering over party posts and disappointment that Anwar was legally barred from taking over as PKR president.

This year, the most important speech at the congress will be made by Anwar in his capacity as de facto leader or ketua umum as they call him in Bahasa Malaysia.

Even though people may be disappointed that he has not been able to produce the numbers, it cannot be denied that he has brought the party from zero to hero. It has been an amazing journey given the odds that were stacked against them in the run-up to the last general election.

A key segment of Anwar’s speech will have to address the party’s hopes for him to become Prime Minister. More challenging for him is how he can keep their hopes high.

Element of surprise

But Saifuddin has hinted at an “element of surprise”, a sort of bombshell announcement at the congress.

Is it going to be the announcement of Barisan Nasional politicians crossing over?

“Maybe there will be some cross-overs. You’ll have to wait and see,” he said.

It is no secret that Anwar had asked various PAS politicians to woo Tengku Razaleigh over to Pakatan Rakyat while another Kelantan Umno politician, Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, was seen having a collegial time at the PKR open house in Titiwangsa.

Are the Kelantan Prince and the Umno rebel going to be part of the surprise? Or is the Sabah promise finally going to bear fruit?

Or is this going to be another Sept 16 that will get everybody all worked up for nothing?

“My lips are sealed for now,” said Saifuddin.

Khairy needs Rembau vote

ANALYSIS
By JOCELINE TAN

KHAIRY Jamaluddin is about to cross another big hurdle in his bid for the Umno Youth leadership. He has to, by hook or by crook, secure the nomination from Rembau where he is the Member of Parliament and the Youth head.

It would be a huge blow if his own division gives the nomination to one of his rivals. As such, the Rembau Youth meeting will be the centre of attention this weekend.

His boys are leaving nothing to chance, especially after what happened to Rembau Puteri chief Bibi Sharliza Mohd Khalid at the division’s Puteri meeting a couple of weeks ago.

Bibi, who is going for the national Puteri Umno leadership, was snubbed by her own division which gave the nomination to the Sabah Puteri chief.

Khairy got his first nomination from his home state only last week.

It came from Tampin, thanks largely to Datuk Jamlus Abdul Aziz, the Negri Sembilan Umno Youth chief. Jamlus is not exactly an ally of Khairy but he had made a rather heartfelt appeal on behalf of Khairy and the latter won the nomination unopposed.

“I hope Rembau will not treat Khairy the way they treated Bibi. That was cruel and the whole country is talking about it,” said Jamlus.

Umno members in the state have been talking about there being too many tigers on one hill in Rembau.

The Rembau division chief is Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan while the Youth chief Khairy is aspiring to be the national Umno Youth leader and Puteri chief Bibi is eyeing the national Puteri leadership.

It is a rather crowded hill with one tiger, a tiger cub and a tigress.

There have even been allegations of manipulation from the top and fingers have been pointed at no less than the division chief himself.

But said Mohamad: “There are a few who are against Khairy but he should not have problems getting the nomination this weekend. I know people are saying that I am interfering. That’s not true, I’m very open in my management and I do not sabotage. In fact, I am ready to pack my bags if I’m not needed. I won’t stay a minute longer than necessary.”

The nomination race has been a humbling experience for Khairy. He has gone from golden boy to underdog, trailing behind Datuk Mukhriz Mahathir and Datuk Seri Dr Khir Toyo.

As the incumbent Umno Youth No. 2, he should not be struggling this way.

He has secured more than enough nominations to contest the wing’s top post but he has had a bruising time getting there.

He is probably more stunned than anyone else that it has been so difficult getting support in Negri Sembilan. Of the eight divisions in the state, four nominated Mukhriz, one was for Khir, one for Khairy.

The Rembau and Seremban divisions will meet this weekend. Khairy is likely to get the okay from Rembau but Seremban may be difficult.

Scoring two out of eight in one’s home turf is not good news. Khir manged to get 15 out of 22 divisions in Selangor behind him while Mukhriz won 13 out of 14 in Kedah.

Political manipulation aside, Khairy’s dilemma also reflects a certain disconnect on his part with the ground as well as the warlords who matter in a contest like this.

Khairy had once described his Prime Minister father-in-law as his “protection” and how he wanted to use it to effect change. This relationship also protected him from those who resented his swift ascent. But the leadership transition has changed everything.

What he is going through now is probably a reality check for him.

But now that he has qualified, Khairy should continue the race as all the candidates will have to start from scratch.

As Khir’s right-hand man Faisal Abdullah said: “We start from zero again after the nominations are over. It could be anybody’s game after that.”

Even those in Mukhriz’s team are not gloating over their man’s massive nominations. They are seriously thinking of ways to maintain the momentum.

It is going to a political marathon from now till March and nothing is over yet, not even for the underdog.

source: Khairy needs Rembau vote
Malaysia Star, Malaysia

JOCELINE TAN: Who will be the perfect No.2?

INSIGHT
By Joceline Tan

Some believe that when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak becomes Prime Minister, he should have a Ghafar Baba-like deputy who will not be a threat to him. Others say the next No.2 must be ready from day one to tackle the looming political and economic challenges.

DATUK Shafie Mohd Abdullah’s Hari Raya open house has always had an oomph to it, thanks to the presence of his boss Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Shafie is Najib’s political secretary, and their relationship goes back to the days when Najib was Umno Youth leader.

This year’s open house had what Umno supreme council member Datuk Norza Zakaria described as an “Obama-sized gathering” — that is a big turnout.

Present were all three aspirants for the Umno deputy president’s post, namely Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam and Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib. Perhaps they were there hoping to get the nomination from the Wangsa Maju Umno division which has yet to meet and where Shafie is a big gun.

Although Shafie is political secretary to Najib in his capacity as Finance Minister I, “people are starting to look at him as the political secretary to the incoming Umno president,” said Norza, who was the former Wangsa Maju Youth head.

“In politics, we like to say that today is his day, yesterday was my day. But then tomorrow may be my day again.”

The political wind is changing, alliances are shifting and fortunes have turned — some for the better, others for the worse.

And that is politics, as they say.

A lot of it has to do with the leadership transition. Najib is well on his way to becoming the next Umno president, having swept the party nominations for the post.

Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, the other aspirant for the post, only won his first nomination yesterday from his own Gua Musang division.

It looks like Najib will be endorsed by 190 out of the 191 divisions by the time the party division meetings conclude on Nov 9.

Three brides and a groom: Three candidates are vying to be the No. 2 to Najib (far left) who has swept the nominations for Umno president. He is seen here with two of the candidates Mohd Ali (third from left) and Muhammad (far right) at the Hari Raya open house of Datuk Shafie (second from left), where Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim was also present.

A first for Umno

Umno will soon be in an unprecedented situation where the party has chosen the next president while the incumbent chief remains the Prime Minister until March.

This will be a first for the party and it will be interesting to see how things work out.

“It will be quite awkward but the transition has been agreed upon and accepted,” said Norza. “That’s why Datuk Seri Najib is getting almost 100% support. We see him assisting in reforming the party while Pak Lah concentrates on reform in the Government.”

Najib’s supporters are confident that he has the experience and polish to negotiate his way through the next five months without stepping on too many toes. They say that Najib will ensure that the transition is smooth and dignified.

Many Umno politicians have also taken a leaf from the discussion surrounding the US presidential campaign.

They talk about how the incoming Umno president/ Prime Minister has to be ready to take over from day one, that there will be no time for on-the-job training or even acclimatisation on account of the global financial crisis.

“Datuk Seri Najib recognises the urgency to be ready by March,” said a long-time aide of the Deputy Prime Minister.

Likewise, whoever is picked as his deputy has to start working the day he steps into office.

As such, it is puzzling that some people in the party are advocating that Najib should have a Ghafar Baba-type of deputy.

These people are claiming that with a Ghafar Baba prototype, Najib would have peace of mind to take charge of Umno and the Government. The Ghafar Baba prototype would not try to challenge him or, worse, plot and scheme to take over from him.

They point out that the period during which Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had Tun Ghafar Baba as his deputy coincided with some of the most stable years in Umno politics.

The same group asserts that the most traumatic periods were when Dr Mahathir had ambitious and impatient deputies, namely Tun Musa Hitam in the 1980s and, of course, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

There is no denying that the Malacca-born Ghafar lived and died as one of the most sincere and likeable politicians this country has had.

But with all due respect to the memory of the late Ghafar, times have changed. The halcyon days when life and politics were simpler are long gone.

Malaysians expect and deserve a leadership that can measure up to contemporary standards and challenges as well as make them proud at home and abroad.

Najib, when he becomes Prime Minister, does not need a seat-warmer as his No.2 in order to feel secure and in control of Umno. The massive endorsement now pouring in for him is more than enough assurance and proof of party support.

What he needs is a capable and loyal deputy who can pull his own weight.

And in the event of something happening to the Prime Minister, the Deputy Prime Minister has to be ready and able to take over.

A seat-warmer would be disastrous in such a situation. The No.2 job is far too important for a seat-warmer type of candidate.

Given the political challenges ahead for Umno and the global economic uncertainties, it is quite dumbfounding that such simplistic and inane arguments are being circulated by interested parties in Umno.

Muhyiddin: He is leading in the nominations for deputy president and is back in Dr Mahathir’s good books.

The most astonishing thing is that such views are being pushed by seemingly educated people.

Said one Johor politician: “If these people really cared about the party and the country, they would not be talking such nonsense.”

But everything lies in the hands of the Umno grassroots. The power of the grassroots to decide is no cliche this time around.

“People are talking about the wave and the wind. It’s no joke, I saw it happening in my own division,” said Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar who is contesting the vice-presidency.

He had proposed fellow Johorean Muhyiddin for the deputy president’s post at his Kota Tinggi division meeting but the floor decided they wanted Muhammad. His division, which is dominated by Felda and Felcra schemes, favoured Muhammad who is Rural and Regional Development Minister.

Candidates need to get a minimum of 39 nominations to qualify to contest, a task that looks easier on paper than in reality.

Two-way fight

At this point in time, it looks like the fight will be between Muhyiddin and Mohd Ali, who is Malacca Chief Minister.

Muhyiddin has continued to lead the nomination count for the Umno No.2 job. The International Trade and Industry Minister pulled ahead early in the race based on the perception that he is Najib’s preferred running mate and also that he has Dr Mahathir’s blessings.

Mohd Ali is still doing well, thanks to what is widely seen as endorsement from Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. He made more progress this week and has only a week more to make the cut.

Muhammad, once the most powerful man in Selangor, is struggling to survive. The former Selangor Mentri Besar has been like a cat with nine lives, making one comeback after another. But this may be his Alamo.

Other factors like ability and track record aside, Muhyiddin’s immediate advantage over his two rivals is that he is a sitting MP.

Mohd Ali is an assemblyman whereas Muhammad is an appointed senator. It will be problematic for them to be made Deputy Prime Minister, given their non-parliamentary status.

And as Minister in the PM’s Department Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz pointed out, it will be even more complicated if they have to face a by-election in order to become an MP and Deputy Prime Minister.

The contest to be the No.2 is more complicated than it looks.

source:
Who will be the perfect No.2? The star.

JOCELINE TAN: Young Turks to the fore

The MCA elections may be over but members are waiting to see who will be appointed to certain positions and if incumbents in the Cabinet who lost will be replaced.

IT HAS been quite an amazing turnaround for Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein. Just a few months ago, he was wondering whether his political career had hit a bump on the political highway.

Nothing seemed to have gone right for the incumbent Umno Youth leader after the general election. At one point, things were so bad that the team around him was not even sure about his chances in the Umno polls.

But the tide has turned and he is now leading in the nomination race for the three vice-president (VP) posts. Hishammuddin’s shift in fortune has partly to do with the wind of change blowing through Umno.

With just another week to go before the Umno division meetings wrap up, it looks like the VP contest will be dominated by the Young Turks.

Apart from Hishammuddin, 47, there is Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, 55, Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal, 50, and Datuk Seri Khaled Nordin, 49.

All four had easily surpassed the 20 nominations required to contest the post.

It was an clear-cut indication of the mood for new blood and change in the Umno leadership.

For several years now, Umno’s VPs have come to be seen as a check-and-balance group in the party’s top leadership.

But because of the leadership change taking place at the very top, the issue of succession has also become a factor in the VP contest, hence the dominance of younger and seriously qualified faces.

However, delegates would also want at least one senior and experienced face among the three VPs and this is where candidates like Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar and Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Dr Rais Yatim will come into play; and many expect them to qualify for the race soon.

There is no denying that the eventual VP team will very likely comprise people who Najib can work with and rely on.

In fact, the top three contenders are associated with Najib in one way or another. Hishammuddin and Najib are cousins and much as Hishammuddin’s supporters insist that he is there on his own merit, many divisions are probably giving him the nomination as a measure of goodwill for Najib.

The deluge of nominations may not necessarily translate into votes. Hishammuddin, who is Education Minister, is quite aware of that and has asked his supporters not to get complacent just because he has the most nominations.

Zahid has done remarkably well in the VP campaign despite the fiasco over his short-lived attempt at offering himself for the deputy president post. But it has been at some cost because he would be the one leading the VP contest if not for that ill-conceived episode.

Zahid owes a lot to Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi who made him Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department in March. But he got his first big break in politics when Najib took him as his political secretary from 1987 to 1993.

His ties with Najib have remained warm even though he went on to become a right hand man of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim shortly before the latter’s fall from power.

Shafie, the third leading candidate, also came up through Umno Youth together with Najib and he has been an out-and-out loyalist of Najib from day one.

Shafie’s edge in this contest is that he is from Sabah. Any party hoping to stay in power cannot ignore the Sabah factor. If the Unity, Arts, Culture and Heritage Minister wins, he will the first Umno VP from Sabah.

The geographical factor has always been important in Umno elections and members like a good representation of leaders from every state.

But Johor may be rather too well represented in the next Umno leadership line-up. Some Umno members have jokingly complained that Johor is producing too many capable and qualified politicians, pointing to the six Cabinet members who are from Johor.

Moreover, there are three Johorians - Hishammuddin, Khaled and Syed Hamid - among the more serious VP contenders. They will have to really try their best because delegates are unlikely to vote in more than one VP from Johor.

Political signals: It was the first time that Dr Mahathir had ever attended Muhyiddin’s Hari Raya open house and the event caused a stir among those present. The former Premier is seen here exchanging greetings with Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik while host Muhyiddin looks on. Seated from left are Tun Dr Siti Hasmah Mohd Ali, Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu and Mubarak president Tan Sri Abu Zahar Ujang.

Muhyiddin’s surprise guest

Besides, the next deputy president of Umno is also likely to a be Johorian, namely Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Of course, some argue that the next Umno No 2 may well be Datuk Mohd Ali Rustam who is Malacca Chief Minister.

“Everybody is confident that Muhyiddin will make it, that he’s the one. But there are some who think, let’s have a contest, that it’ll be healthy for the party so that no one will take the members for granted,” said Syed Hamid.

Mohd Ali has been making steady progress in the nomination count. His supporters are claiming that even the Prime Minister is backing him, especially after Abdullah appeared on TV expressing concern that there were groups pressuring Ali Rustam to withdraw from the contest.

The support from the Prime Minister should help him secure the 38 nominations he needs to contest.

But Muhyiddin, as many would know by now, has the tacit backing of the former Premier.

Last Sunday, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his wife caused a stir when they turned up at Muhyiddin’s Hari Raya open house in Damansara Heights.

It was the first time Dr Mahathir had ever attended a Hari Raya do at Muhyiddin’s residence.

Some said the elder statesman wanted to show his approval for Muhyiddin. Others said it was his way of acknowledging Muhyiddin’s role in speeding up the Umno leadership transition.

Whichever the reason, it set tongues awagging.

Even the normally unflappable Muhyiddin seemed thrilled to bits. He had held Dr Mahathir’s hand with both of his hands and bowed low to kiss it.

Dr Mahathir is 83 and retired. He is not even an Umno member but the consummate politician has been playing big-time politics in the way that only he knows how to.

Underlying all these impending changes is the fact that Najib’s reach in Umno is quite unrivalled.

He entered politics when he was 25 and he is now 55. During this time he has built up an amazing network of political alliances and friendship.

Many of the warlords and grassroots leaders who now command the division level poltitics have known him since his days as the leader of Umno Youth.

On his way up, he has helped a lot of people, lent his political weight to their careers and that is why things are falling in place for him at this critical juncture in Umno.

And that is also why Umno’s opponents have zoomed in on him as their target, vilifying him over a myriad of issues ranging from the Altantuya case to helicopter deals.

Many see a Najib team taking shape even at this early stage of the Umno polls.

“It’s a very crucial election for Umno. It will determine our party’s future, even our survival,” said Syed Hamid.

Young Turks to the fore
Malaysia Star, Malaysia

JOCELINE TAN: What Wanita Umno wants

DATUK Seri Shahrizat Jalil’s social and political network is so wide that she hosted her Hari Raya open house over two evenings.

And on both occasions, the question on everyone’s lips was whether she would challenge Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz for the Wanita Umno leadership.

“It was the top topic at every table. She should go for it €“ that was the general consensus,” said an editor who was there.

Shahrizat has secured enough nominations to go for the wing’s No. 1 post as well as to defend her own No. 2 post.

The Wanita Umno members had snubbed the June 2009 leadership transition plan that would see Rafidah giving way to Shahrizat three months after the Umno elections.

The women were telling Shahrizat that they were prepared to go the distance with her.

So what is she waiting for?

Apparently, Shahrizat is just being Shahrizat. She is reluctant to challenge the status quo, afraid of taking risks and fearful of the conflict that will come with a fight.

Some of her closest supporters, frustrated by her lack of fighting spirit, have even called her penakut (scaredy-cat) to her face.

Even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who gave her her break in politics, has joined in, telling her to respect the wishes of the grassroots.

Her closest supporters are hoping she will make a decision by this weekend when more nominations come in for her to challenge the top Wanita post. In fact, they are demanding that she decide by this weekend.

“We are pushing her.

“I told her she would be letting her supporters down if she does not listen to them,” said a Wanita division chief.

Shahrizat’s would-be running mate Datuk Kamilia Ibrahim, the Kuala Kangsar Wanita chief, has also secured enough nominations to run for deputy Wanita chief.

It is obvious Shahrizat was hoping that the wave of support for her would persuade Rafidah to gracefully step aside before June.

It was wishful thinking because Rafidah is Shahrizat’s complete opposite. The daring and decisive Rafidah has not lost her warrior spirit despite losing her Cabinet post. Nothing scares the Iron Lady, not even the “warlords” in Umno.

And Rafidah, for reasons best known to her, is determined to fight to stay on till June.

Sources say Rafidah has given her blessings to her loyalist Datuk Maz-nah Mazlan to vie for the No. 2 post in the event of a challenge from the Shahrizat-Kamilia pairing.

There are still more than 60 Wanita divisions which have yet to hold their AGMs, and Maznah, who is Pahang Wanita Umno chief and a deputy minister, has been asking them to nominate her for the No. 2 post.

Rafidah’s camp knows that Shahrizat has support but they also know she is more timid and they are ready to take her on.

Frankly, one of the few persons who has demonstrated clear thinking and shown to have a mind of her own has been Kamilia.

She pointed out the loopholes of the June 2009 transition plan €“ how it does not hold water under the Umno constitution and how it would create an incomplete leadership in June because the party rules do not provide for an acting Wanita deputy chief.

“This is not about what two people want, but what the grassroots want. Rafidah must leave behind a strong wing, not an incomplete leadership with gaps. Shahrizat should be thinking along those lines. I believe she sees my point of view,” said Kamilia.

Tough decisions lie ahead for Shahrizat.

The interesting thing is that she is no longer singing the old tune of respecting the June 2009 transition plan.

When guests at her open house asked her about a possible challenge for the Wanita Umno leadership, her reply was: “I will have to think about it.”

What Wanita Umno wants
Malaysia Star, Malaysia -

JOCELINE TAN: Making the right pick - UMNO

There is a record number of people vying to be the next Umno deputy president but party members have to keep in mind that whoever they pick must also be a deputy prime minister whom all Malaysians will accept.

VERY few missed the fact that Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was standing beside Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak when the latter confirmed he would contest the Umno presidency.

A picture, as they say, speaks a thousand words and many of those at the Umno Raya gathering in Kuala Terengganu on Thursday did think they were looking at the next Umno president and his running mate.

Supporters of both men insisted it was “a coincidence,” saying that Muhyiddin had been in neighbouring Kelantan and had decided to come over in his capacity as Umno vice-president.

There will probably be more of such “coincidences” in the weeks ahead as the Umno divisions begin to nominate candidates for the party leadership.

“We want the best for the party and this is a good partnership. I admire Muhyiddin for being frank and sincere when others were hiding their feelings,” said former Terengganu Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh.

Looking good: It is not surprising why Najib seems partial to Muhyiddin as a running mate. Seen here after announcing on Friday that he will contest the Umno No. 2 post, Muhyiddin is a thinking politician and a serious -minded leader.

Idris’ Besut division has nominated Najib and Muhyiddin for the top posts. Most divisions in Terengganu will probably do the same except for Kuala Terengganu where Datuk Wan Farid Wan Ahmad, the division chief and also the Prime Minister’s former political secretary, is critical of Muhyiddin.

The race for the party’s top posts effectively began the day after Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said he would not defend his post as president.

Najib has to contend with the possibility of facing Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Muhyiddin, on the other hand, is one of four names interested in the deputy president post.

Former Selangor Mentri Besar Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib and Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam announced their interest the day Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said he was withdrawing from the No. 2 race. Then there is Pulai MP Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed.

There has never been this many contenders for the No. 2 post and Umno members have been left scratching their heads.

Nur Jazlan: The Pulai MP had asked the Prime Minister to resign during a closeddoor Johor Umno meeting in May.

It had begun with Zahid causing a stir on the third day of Hari Raya when he said he was going for the post.

It was apparent that Zahid was being used by the group around Abdullah who wanted to undermine Muhyiddin for derailing the original leadership transition plan.

Sources said Zahid was personally asked by someone very, very high up to go for the post and he had no choice but to agree. This happened just a few days before Hari Raya.

But Zahid changed his mind this week after a meeting with Najib on Tuesday. Both Najib and Zahid are 55 years old, but Najib has always been a sort of mentor figure to Zahid. They go back a long way and Zahid was political secretary to Najib from 1987 to 1993 before he moved on to become an ally of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

Some said Zahid had a “heart-to-heart talk” with Najib, while others said the Deputy Prime Minister gave him a no-nonsense talking-to. The outcome was that Zahid heeded his mentor’s advice and duly pulled out of the race.

Zahid had been among the top three members of the supreme council for two consecutive terms but he is not deputy president material, or at least not yet. He will now probably contest for one of the three vice-presidents’ post and do well at that.

If Zahid is deemed less than qualified, what does that make Jazlan, who at 42, has never vied for a supreme council seat. He has a famous father in former minister Tan Sri Mohamed Rahmat, but he has not exactly shone in the party.

Even the media did not take him seriously because news of his intention came out as a filler in most newspapers. Only TV3 went to town with it.

Jazlan seems to be a “protest candidate” who is trying to make a point.

“Since the general election, the voters have acquired an appetite for change. I am sending out a signal for the future, that if we don’t think out of the box, we are staring at defeat,” he said.

Mat Taib: The former Selangor strongman will easily secure the required nominations to qualify as a candidate.

Mocking the leadership

Some think he is trying to thumb his nose at the leadership or what the Malays call perli, to mock the powers-that-be. In Britain, his action would be seen as eccentric but Umno is a conservative party and is unlikely to be amused by such antics.

Jazlan admitted being fed-up that the party had not progressed after the March elections. He was unhappy that the leaders had not taken responsibility for the losses.

“I told the PM to resign in April when he met the Johor Umno liaison committee. I did not do it behind his back, I said it to his face,” said Jazlan.

He knows his chances of geting the nominations are “as thin as an A4 sheet of paper,” but he said he was determined to state his point of view.

Jazlan’s action is also putting his reputation at stake because he may not be taken seriously in future. Even his own Pulai division is unlikely to nominate him.

Muhammad and Mohd Ali are both senior party figures but party members have also questioned their suitability.

Muhammad or Mat Taib as he is known had been a three-term vice-president before losing in the 2004 party polls while Mohd Ali is a first-term vice-president.

Mat Taib’s interest in the No. 2 post is a calculated one. He knows he would not win in the vice-president race because of the younger faces coming in. He figures that even if he lost in the deputy president contest, it would not be a great loss of face.

Muhammad, who is also Rural Development Minister, is quite assured of securing the 38 nominations needed to qualify as a candidate.

“Selangor Umno will deliver the bulk of nominations to Tan Sri Mat Taib because he is our state liaison chairman,” said Selangor Umno Youth deputy head Faisal Abdullah.

Mohd Ali’s game plan is harder to fathom. He has not stood out as a vice-president and he is way out of his league in the race for deputy president.

Mohd Ali: Many are wondering why he is going for the No. 2 post when he could have easily retained his vice-presidency.

But he has great grassroots appeal and it is said he had a good chance of retaining his vice-president seat.

Given all this, it is unsurprising if Najib is perceived as leaning towards Muhyiddin. The International Trade and Industry Minister is a thinking politician and among Umno’s most serious-minded leaders. He has extensive political and administrative experience and a good grasp of economic management.

He also demonstrated leadership at a time of crisis. It is not easy to speak the truth in the face of power and he showed courage in doing so.

Those at the press conference where he announced he would contest the deputy president post were impressed by the polished way he fielded some tough questions.

Many of his supporters were there for him and some came with a banner proclaiming support for Najib as president and Muhyiddin as deputy president. And below that in bold script: “Pak Lah we love you. Your deeds and sacrifices will always be remembered. From the Umno grassroots of Selangor.”

The transition has been smoother than most people in Umno could have hoped for. And it could not be better summed up than by the message on the banner.

If only Umno can now keep in mind that whoever they pick as deputy president must also be the sort of deputy prime minister whom all Malaysians can accept.

source: Making the right pick
Malaysia Star, Malaysia

Race for Umno deputy president no longer restricted

Analysis
By JOCELINE TAN

UMNO circles have been abuzz for weeks that one of Umno’s most likeable politicians, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, would be going for the party’s deputy president post.

And even before that, the talk was that Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib, at one time the most powerful man in Selangor, was also being pushed by some quarters to go for it.

The race is on: Zahid (right) may have inevitably opened the floodgates for Najib’s (left) post.

Then, of course, there is International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who has been elevated into a class of his own for speaking his mind on the leadership transition plan.

Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Rais Yatim and Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Mohd Ali Rustam are also said to be keen.

But to date, only Zahid, a junior Cabinet Minister, has confirmed his interest. He is now a sizzling topic of conversation at the Raya open houses of Umno politicians.

The number of names being tossed about for this high-level post has had many in Umno shaking their heads in disbelief.

It is all right, they say, to contemplate going for a seat in the 25-person supreme council or even the three vice-presidents’ positions.

However, they say the No. 1 and No. 2 posts are in another realm. They are not exactly for every Tom, Dick and Harry.

Umno politicians have been watching the way the American presidential race is being conducted. They are amazed at the rigour and depth at which both the Democratic and Republican candidates are being scrutinised by the media and American voters as well as the on-going debate over the role of their respective running mates.

“It’s more than just filling the post. It is about playing a real role because Umno has big problems and challenges,” said Pahang Umno information chief Datuk Sharkar Shamsudin.

Some of the would-be candidates cannot even speak proper English or as the Manglish joke goes, their “England is not so powderful”.

Umno politicians are fierce champions of Bahasa Malaysia but they readily admit that English is the international lingua franca and a good command of English is a prerequisite for top leaders of the country.

But the younger set like Kota Belud MP Datuk Rahman Dahlan do not see why the post should be so exclusive.

“Let it be,” he said a la the Beatles.

Muhyiddin was the presumed forerunner in the race. He is a three-term vice-president, has been both a Mentri Besar and Minister and, besides, he lit the spark that led to the power transition being fast-forwarded to 2009.

Still, some thought Zahid jumped the gun in stating his intention even before the Prime Minister had made a stand on his presidency.

Muhammad, for instance, was more seasoned about his interest.

The Rural Development Minister said that he would wait for the Prime Minister to decide before taking the next step.

But there may be powerful reasons for Zahid’s confidence. It is no secret that the loyal circle around the Prime Minister blames Muhyiddin for derailing the 2010 transition plan. Some Umno insiders suggest that this small circle is backing Zahid to take on Muhyiddin. They know Muhyiddin will not be easy to beat but they intend to give him a run for the money.

But Zahid may have inevitably opened the floodgates for the No. 2 post.

The other would-be candidates probably think that if Zahid, at 55 and basically a Johnny-come-lately who has never contested for vice-president, could see himself as the next deputy president and deputy prime minister, then so can they.

The others have worked their way up the ranks and several of them have been Mentri Besar or Minister or both for several terms.

But there is an important reason that Zahid has caused such a stir. The reason is that despite his inexperience, he looks like a serious contender who will give it his all.

Apart from his powerful backers, he is hungry for power, he has the means to campaign and he has quite solid religious credentials.

His parents were religious teachers from a small town in Perak and he was among the first of the Malay affluent class whose home included a private surau. His people skills are first-class even if his English is fractured.

Some think that several of the other candidates on the list would not be able to even secure the 20% or 38 nominations needed to contest the No. 2 post.

But Zahid should not be taken lightly, least of all by the other serious candidate Muhyiddin.

source: Race for Umno deputy president no longer restricted
Malaysia Star, Malaysia

JOCELINE TAN: Waiting with bated breath

Friday September 26, 2008

All eyes will be on the special Umno supreme council meeting today which comes after many days of speculation that changes might be made to the leadership succession plan, and even the date of the annual assembly scheduled in December.

THE emergency Umno supreme council meeting today may see an earlier than anticipated transition of power in the ruling party.

The meeting scheduled for this morning was the topic of conversation at every buka puasa function that involved Umno members last night.

Every Umno politician seems to know that the 2010 transition plan might be drastically changed after this meeting.

For a start, they say the Umno general assembly scheduled for December may be postponed to next year.

The postponement also means that the national party elections will be delayed till the new date of the assembly. However, the division level elections, which will take place from Oct 9 to Nov 9, are expected to proceed.

But more momentous than that, they say, is that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is expected to inform the supreme council regarding his position as Umno president.

They feel he may indicate an earlier-than-expected handover.

The original transition plan, which was announced in July, would have seen Abdullah handing over power to his deputy, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, by June 2010.

These will be some of the key topics to be discussed and decided upon by the 25-member supreme council, which is Umno’s highest decision-making body.

Today’s meeting is the latest in a fast-moving chain of events in Umno politics since the fasting month began.

Some Umno politicians thought there would be a lull during the Ramadan month but politics seems to have developed a life and will of its own.

After last week’s supreme council meeting, several state Umno chiefs convened at Abdullah’s official residence for a meeting during which they urged Abdullah to get a firmer commitment from Najib regarding the coming party elections.

Some of them were concerned that Najib had, on the one hand, expressed support for the transition plan but on the other, had said he would leave the final decision to delegates attending the Umno division meetings next month.

The meeting took place between 1am and 3am on Tuesday. That same evening, Abdullah and Najib had a four-eyed meeting.

On Wednesday afternoon, Najib chaired a hastily convened Umno management committee meeting, presumably to brief them and get a consensus on what had transpired between him and the Prime Minister.

The management committee, chaired by Najib, comprises key Umno leaders including vice-presidents, secretary-general, treasurer, information chief and leaders of the Wanita, Youth and Puteri wings.

Members of the committee have been extremely tight-lipped about the meeting following Najib’s stern warning on confidentiality.

On Thursday morning, another four-eyed meeting took place between Abdullah and Najib. It is understood that the meeting was to convey what transpired among the management committee members.

The supreme council meeting today is the culmination of this string of events.

However, it was Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who lit the spark when he urged Abdullah to consider an earlier exit plan. That spark became a flame when Najib announced he would let the division meetings decide on the transition of power.

His statement was widely read as an indication that he would be open to being nominated for the top party post.

However, he has also repeatedly stressed that he is opposed to a “takeover of power” and was looking instead at a “handover of power”.

Umno rank and file have been talking non-stop about today’s event. They are particularly concerned about the proposal to postpone the general assembly and national party elections.

They do not see why the general assembly and elections have to be put off. As it is, many of them are unhappy over the way the original 2010 transition plan was decided by just a few without consulting the larger body of opinions within the party.

Hence, if the supreme council decides to support the postponement, they will have to come up with a solid explanation that will be accepted by the Umno grassroots.

source: Waiting with bated breath
Malaysia Star, Malaysia

JOCELINE TAN: Anwar returns – as the alternative

The atmosphere in Parliament will definitely be changed with the return of one of Malaysia's most controversial politicians.

DATUK Seri Anwar Ibrahim returns to Parliament today still flushed from his victory in Permatang Pauh

For a start, he had better be prepared to be lionised by the media. He is quite used to that by now, but it is going to happen on an even more frenetic scale now that he has returned as Permatang Pauh MP.

He will also be the centre of attention inside the House.

Across the plush carpeted floor that separates the two coalitions will be familiar faces, many of whom Anwar said once used to rush to shake and even kiss his hand but who now run away when they see him.

There is no running away for them now. They will have to take him on.

Moreover, he told a ceramah crowd during the campaign in Permatang Pauh that when he enters Parliament on Aug 28, he intends to gaze directly and deeply into the Prime Minister’s eyes. All eyes will be on him when he actually does that.

“It’s going to be rather awkward for those on the Barisan Nasional bench. His presence will change the atmosphere in Parliament, things are going to be quite different,” said Batu MP Tian Chua.

Then of course there is the fact that there will be two Prime Ministers-in-waiting inside the House. Anwar and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s path crossed only once over 11 days in Permatang Pauh and that was on nomination day. But now they will be sitting just several metres across from each other.

It should also be awkward for Rembau MP Khairy Jamaluddin who had declared in grand Shakespearian style that Umno had gone to Permatang Pauh to bury Anwar in the by-election.

Instead Anwar has arrived in Parliament as the new Opposition leader.

But Anwar is probably planning behave to himself. There are unlikely to be any unseemly pot shots taken at the other side, at least for the time being.

Anwar, for those who have yet to notice, has begun adopting a statesman-like demeanour.

He has discarded his fiery oratory for a more sober and mature speaking style and demeanour. He is still as witty as ever but he has scaled back on the jokes and his penchant for breaking into P. Ramlee and Elvis songs on stage.

Every single image of him on the thousands of posters, banner and billboards in Permatang Pauh portrayed him looking like a man on the way to Putrajaya. It has really sunk in for his supporters who celebrated his win on Tuesday night with chants of, “Anwar PM” and “Putrajaya.”

Wherever he went in Permatang Pauh, he was accompanied by four burly, crew-cut bodyguards in dark bush-suits and wearing conspicuous ear-pieces. The chief bodyguard wore a jacket that had “A Team” printed on it. The whole rigmarole was more amusing than impressive.

Many also noted that he looked serious, even grim, when he arrived at the Tuanku Bainun Institute to wait for the official election results. It did not help that he was wearing a baggy and rather colourful batik shirt.

Apparently, his advisers had told him to be magnanimous and to refrain from any outlandish triumphal gestures.

But form and style aside, Anwar is joining Parliament with quite impressive credentials.

The former Deputy Prime Minister won the by-election with a huge majority and against the mighty Barisan.

He retained a grip on the Chinese and Indian vote with the help of the DAP and made significant inroads into Malay ground with the help of PAS.

“But at the end of the day, it was very much about Anwar’s presence. He has their support,” said Malik Kassim, the PKR assemblyman for Batu Maung.

Perhaps the most worrying thing for Umno was how poorly the party fared among young voters. Voting stream data showed a PKR sweep of votes among those in their 20s and 30s. Umno did well mainly among the older generation.

In that sense, Anwar can lay claim to the generational shift that is taking place among the Malays.

“Logically speaking, I don’t buy the Sept 16 claim (to form the federal government). But if Barisan continues to lose ground like this, then more people are going to believe it,” said DAP strategist and Bukit Bendera MP Liew Chin Tong.

But, said Penang state exco member Phee Boon Poh, the most important message that Permatang Pauh voters sent out is that they see Anwar as an alternative.

28 August 2008

Anwar returns – as the alternative

Battle gets nastier as polls near

ANALYSIS BY JOCELINE TAN

Umno leaders carried out a carpet-bombing mission but PKR returned fire with religious superstars from PAS.

A MASSIVE jam had built up along the road leading through Pekan Permatang Pauh because of the Umno Youth ceramah.

Among the cars caught in the snarl was a metallic beige Mercedes Benz. The passenger was none other than Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who was on his way to speak at yet another ceramah.

The PKR leader wound down the window and stuck out his head, only to see that the person speaking on the low stage was the Prime Minister’s son-in-law.

It was their first encounter in Permatang Pauh and Khairy Jamaluddin playfully called out to Anwar’s entourage “not to be afraid and to come over and join our ceramah.”

When the Umno Youth crowd saw the famous face, they erupted into a chorus of boos.

Anwar looked amused. He tends to be rather blasé about rebellious behaviour since he had been even more radical in his student leader days. He grinned, waved and wound up his window.

But Anwar might not have grinned so broadly had he heard what Khairy was saying.

The Umno Youth deputy chief was really pushing the envelope that evening. He complained that Anwar had accused Umno and its leaders of all sort of things, from corruption to conspiracy.

But Khairy’s return volley was even more alarming and he used terms like munafik (hypocrite), pengkhianat (traitor) and made some pretty daring jokes about Anwar and his “coffee boy” Saiful Bukhari Azlan. He questioned why Anwar was so reluctant to swear his innocence on the Quran and dared him to do so.

“It was the most hard-hitting ceramah so far,” said Umno Youth secretary Datuk Rahman Dahlan.

Call him impetuous, opportunistic or even foolish, but Khairy is among the few in Umno who would dare stick his neck out for the party on this issue.

The 300-strong crowd loved it just as they loved the scandalous accounts from two of Anwar’s former associates, one-time PKR Youth chief Ezam Mohd Nor and Datuk Nallakaruppan, better known as Anwar’s former tennis partner. It appears that there are no permanent friends or foes in either politics or tennis.

The problem is that Ezam and Nallakaruppan have a credibility issue. The other problem is that more than half the audience were party workers, so all of them were speaking to the converted.

The same evening, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak surprised people attending a mosque function when he swore in the name of God that he did not know, nor did he have anything to do with the murdered Mongolian Altantuya Shaariibuu.

The fact that the Deputy Prime Minister said this inside a mosque made many sit up.

But it was Mongolian consul-general Datuk Syed Rahman Alhabshee who caused the biggest stir that night.

At a ceramah not far from the mosque where Najib was speaking, Syed Rahman confirmed that there was no evidence that Najib knew Altantuya and neither were there photographs or letters involving the two of them as some had insinuated.

Umno seemed to be on a carpet-bombing mission that Friday evening.

But last night, PKR returned fire via two of PAS’ biggest names.

PAS president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang and famous spiritual healer Datuk Dr Haron Din lent their religious credibility to why Anwar need not take the oath the way that his accuser had.

The crowd seemed to absorb their words like a sponge would water. They are very powerful religious figures, providing arguments that ulama figures from Umno would have to struggle to counter.

But the most powerful endorsement will come tomorrow from the most influential man in PAS today.

Mursyidul Am Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat has been unwell for more than a fortnight, but he is determined to make his way to do battle for the PKR leader.

After that, everything is in the hands of the voters of Permatang Pauh.

click here: Battle gets nastier as polls near Malaysia Star

joceline tan: akar umbi UMNO kuatkan API

Umno grassroots turn on the heat

INSIGHT
By JOCELINE TAN

The anger and frustration among Umno grassroots leaders in Kedah and Penang was an eye-opener for the party's top leaders who are on a fact-gathering tour of the state where the Barisan Nasional lost.

THE venue of the Umno meeting in Alor Star had such a romantic name – Kelab Golf Cinta Sayang.

But the mood inside the club was anything but romantic.

The meeting between Kedah grassroots leaders and the Umno management committee was what a local politician described as panaih, the Kedah slang for panas or hot.

Kedah was the first stop for the management committee led by Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak in its fact-gathering tour of states where the Barisan Nasional lost. The grassroots leadership at the divisional level is the power base of Umno leaders and their views are to be reckoned with.

Najib and his team had begun in Kedah on Thursday morning. And if they thought Kedah was panaih, their next stop in Penang turned out to be even hotter.

The party's top leadership has been aware of the unhappiness on the ground but the depth of anger, the extent of the grievances and the explicit calls for changes at the top, probably stunned the management committee.

The ground was not quite boiling over, but it was certainly simmering with frustration and resentment at what had happened to Umno in the elections.

“It was quite an eye-opener,” one committee member said the day after.

Or as one division chief from Penang put it: “The floodgates have been opened.”

Topping the list of grievances was the way candidates for the general election were picked.

There had, apparently, been a lot of high-handedness. Division chiefs, the people who run the party on the ground, had little say on the candidate list particularly in Kedah, which was largely decided upon by Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid.

As such, members did not like it when, at a forum last week, party president Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi identified sabotage as a reason for the party's losses.

They said the leadership should have inquired into the reasons for any sabotage instead of pointing fingers at the grassroots.

Former minister Datuk Kadir Sheikh Fadzil, sporting his trademark bow-tie, said division chiefs like himself were treated like tongkol kayu (block of wood), meaning their views were ignored.

“The choice of candidate is important if the party wants the grassroots to support and campaign for the candidate,” said Kadir.

But basically, Umno members in Kedah and Penang are still seething over the fact that they have been reduced to being the Opposition and so soon after celebrating the 50th year of Merdeka.

Umno supreme council members also came into the firing line.

“We voted for you but you don't speak up for us. Instead you only say what the leadership wants to hear,” one speaker had said.

The perception is that Umno leaders are more concerned about their own political interests than the needs of the grassroots or the future of the party.

The last time such strong words were levelled at top Umno leaders was after the 1999 election when Umno lost the Malay mandate.

The Umno management committee comprises the party's seven most senior leaders and most of them looked solemn, even worried, as they took in the feedback.

Najib, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Datuk Seri Rafidah Aziz could be seen furiously taking down notes.

In Kedah, where the oral culture is more loquacious, the terminology was colourful and the opinions direct.

In urban Penang, the language was a little more refined but even then, the speakers did not beat about the bush. The speakers, as they say in Penang, gasak or hit out at the leadership.

Some of them urged the federal government to cancel mega projects in Penang because they said they were fed-up at the way projects benefited only certain people.

Almost all the speakers in Kedah were critical of those who had launched attacks on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The former Premier, one of them said, did not cause Umno's losses. Instead, claimed the speaker, the four parliamentary seats won in Kedah were linked to Dr Mahathir in some way – Langkawi where he has invested time and effort; Kubang Pasu, his old constituency; Alor Star where he was born; and Jerlun where his son contested.

“He was our PM for 22 years and contributed a lot. You mean to say that he is no longer our leader? Do not ever attack him because he is still our leader,” one speaker said to loud applause.

People like Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, Datuk Ahmad Shabery Chik and Datuk Ahmad Zahid Hamidi were singled out for attacking Dr Mahathir. Information Minister Shabery got it worst because, as one speaker pointed out, he had once fought Umno on the side of then opposition Semangat 46.

Dr Mahathir may have more than his share of detractors outside of Umno but he is riding high in Kedah.

“They were very critical but it came from the heart. It made me realise how passionate we still are about the party and it gave me hope,” said Sungai Tiang assemblywoman Suraya Yaakob.

For the management committee members, the most awkward part was probably the calls for a leadership change.

A large segment of the Umno ground seems adamant that Umno needs a change of leadership to recover its lost glory.

Some were circumspect, asking “all leaders” to emulate what former Mentri Besar Tan Sri Sanusi Junid did when the Barisan lost in 12 state seats in 1999. Sanusi resigned although the Barisan still had a two-thirds majority over the state government.

Others were more direct, especially in Penang where they asked Abdullah to take responsibility. They even defined the succession line-up – Najib as the next president and Muhyiddin the deputy president. But the Kepala Batas and Bukit Mertajam divisions urged Abdullah to continue as president.

“Some want Pak Lah to stay, some want him to go. But he has made it very clear that he wants to first reunite and strengthen the party. It may take six months, it may take one or two years but so be it,” said a top party official.

However, when Johor Umno leaders asked Abdullah about his future political plans at a closed-door meeting on Friday, he indicated that he may stay till 2010.

Said political analyst Khoo Kay Peng: “It's not a good precedent if the president is forced down. It would not augur well for Umno the institution and I don't see Umno doing that. Till now, there has been no knock-out blow, just punches here and there.”

At this point in time, few in the party see Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah getting enough nominations to challenge Abdullah in December.

Even Dr Mahathir knows that however much noise he makes, he cannot unseat his successor. Only the supreme council or Najib, via a challenge, can do that and those two options have been dismissed.

Some people think Abdullah has tied up Najib's fate with him by naming him as the successor but the two men do have a genuine relationship even if some of the people around Abdullah do not feel 100% secure about Najib.

In that sense, Abdullah's position is quite assured even if not completely stable. He has been wounded but he has managed to stem the bleeding.

But the ground will continue to rumble and grumble and that may not be good for Umno or the country.

The odds are immense. There is Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim looming in the foreground. Umno leaders are bracing for another round of backlash when the branch meetings start in July and division meetings in September.

The divisional leaders in Perak, Selangor and Federal Territory will also be speaking their mind when they meet the management committee next week.

Then there is Dr Mahathir. He has reportedly flown off to London for a live interview on BBC's Hardtalk and has more speaking engagements on his return.

A great deal will depend on how Abdullah can salvage the situation over the next few months, both at the federal government level as well as on the party front. Fiery comments: The Umno management committee headed by Najib, seen here after a session in Penang, had to face a barrage of critical views from the party grassroots. Suraya: The speakers were very critical but it came from the heart. Kadir: Division leaders were treated like tongkol kayu or blocks of wood